Opportunities in the second half of new energy vehicles
The new energy vehicle industry is full of development opportunities in the next few years. The first half of the new energy vehicle industry has not yet been completely completed, and the second half has just begun. An industry consensus is that the development of new energy vehicles can be divided into the first half and the second half, marked by whether the new energy vehicle industry has entered a new development stage. This stage has two important characteristics, one is electrification, the other is intelligence. The new content of electrification and intellectualization constitute the main features of the second half of new energy vehicles. The background is that electric vehicles have achieved large-scale development.
In the short term, there is a lack of new investment opportunities for the whole vehicle. Now it has entered the adjustment stage, but there are still many supply chain opportunities, among which the most innovative area is power battery.
On the one hand, the performance of the power battery has not been solidified, and there is still great potential for improvement.
On the other hand, the competition pattern of new generation batteries, such as solid state batteries and lithium sulfur batteries, is far from being formed, and there are still new development opportunities for each main body. Therefore, it is necessary to do a good job in the layout of the next generation of batteries and focus on the original innovation.
When the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles exceeded 30%, the second half of the market entered a completely market driven development track, while the penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles was different. Up to now, the increment of buses in major inland cities has basically achieved 100% new energy.
It is worth noting that "new forces" are unlikely to emerge in new energy passenger vehicles, but new forces like Tesla and Weixiaoli may emerge in the field of commercial vehicles. The entry of these new forces will have a fundamental impact on the future commercial vehicle market.
A multi factor collaborative system of new energy vehicles, power grid, wind energy, photovoltaic, hydrogen energy, energy storage and other factors will gradually take shape. Among them, electric vehicles will gradually solve the discontinuity and instability of renewable energy power generation affected by seasonal, meteorological and regional conditions through orderly charging, vehicle network interaction (V2G), power exchange, in use and retired battery energy storage, etc. It is estimated that the daily V2G and orderly charging flexibility adjustment capacity of electric vehicles will be close to 12 billion kWh in 2035.
The changes in the future are mainly the technology enterprises that have just entered or are going to enter, because they represent cross-border and a new kind of thinking. In the field of passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles and other complete vehicles, we need new forces; In the whole electric supply chain, we also need new leaders. Intelligentization requires more new entrants, and cross-border technology enterprises may be the leading force in the second half of the transformation of new energy vehicles. If we can sort out the industrial policies smoothly and let cross-border forces enter smoothly, it will be crucial for the second half of China's new energy vehicles.
The upstream energy industry of new energy vehicles deserves attention. In the future, cars will follow the energy. Where there is new energy, there will be new energy automobile industry.
Post time: Jan-05-2023
